2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 12/6/07 For wk 12/1 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 338K  
 Consensus 335K  
 Consensus Range 325K  to  335K  
 Previous 352 K  

Highlights
Jobless claims data were positive with initial claims thankfully falling 15,000 in the Dec. 1 week to a less worrisome level of 338,000 that is well below the 350,000 level that claims appeared to be testing in recent weeks. Still, the four-week average rose nearly 5,000 to 340,250, it's highest level in more than a year. A clear positive in the report was a dip back in continuing claims, down 59,000 to 2.599 million for the Nov. 24 week. Indications for tomorrow's jobs report are mixed with ADP pointing to enormous strength but several other reports, including Challenger and this morning's Monster index, pointing to weakness. Jobless claims had been the most important set of data pointing to weakness, though this morning's results point to steady conditions in the labor market. Treasury prices edged lower and the dollar higher in initial reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims jumped significantly in the week ending November 24 with no special factors to account for the disappointment. Claims surged 23,000 to 352,000, the highest level since February. The spike in claims means that the labor sector may not be as stable as many had believed and cannot be relied upon to support economic growth. The Fed will get to see one more claims report prior to the December 11 FOMC meeting but the latest numbers indicate that the economy certainly is in that "rough patch" that Fed officials have been anticipating.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 12/1/07: 335,000
Range: 325,000 to 335,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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