2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 11/29/07 For wk 11/24 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 352K  
 Consensus 330K  
 Consensus Range 330K  to  330K  
 Previous 330 K  

Highlights
Initial jobless claims jumped significantly in the Nov. 24 week with no special factors to account for the disappointment. Claims rose 23,000 to 352,000, the highest level since February. The four-week average rose nearly 6,000 to 335,250 -- the second highest level of the year behind the first week of March. Continuing claims for the Nov. 17 week also show deterioration, up a steep 112,000 to 2.665 million -- the highest level of the year. The four-week average of 2.589 million is also the highest of the year.

These data are certain to ring alarm bells at the Federal Reserve which right now, as underscored yesterday by Vice Chairman Kohn, is fighting a battle against slowing growth more so perhaps than inflation. Today's data will scale back expectations for next Friday's monthly payroll data. Markets showed little initial reaction to the report which was posted along with mostly as-expected GDP revisions. But the results point to a new element and important element of economic risk -- a negative for stocks and the dollar and a positive for Treasuries.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims are due out for the week ending November 24. Early in November, there were signs that claims may be nudging up due to softer economic growth.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 11/17/07: 330,000
Range: 330,000 to 330,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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