New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/21/07 For wk 11/17 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Weekly jobless claims offered good news on the labor market with initial claims down 11,000 in the Nov. 17 week to 330,000. There were no special factors in the week. The Nov. 17 week is the survey week for the BLS's monthly household survey and a comparison with the Oct. 13 survey week for the October report shows mixed results: the Nov. 17 to Oct. 13 weekly comparison is positive with a 9,000 decline though a comparison of four-week averages shows a 12,750 rise. Continuing claims for the survey week won't be available until next week, but continuing claims have been edging higher over the month and were up 7,000 in the Nov. 10 week to 2.566 million.
Given prospects for slower growth, underscored by a softening growth estimate issued yesterday by the Federal Reserve, concerns over an excessively tight labor market are being pushed into the background. Treasuries dipped in initial reaction to the data then quickly recovered.
Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the week ending November 10, rising 20,000 to 339,000. Importantly, there were no special factors to explain the jump. The Labor Department reported no information on the impact of the strike by Hollywood writers. California wildfires of late last month have added only slightly to claims, less than 2,000 in the latest week for a total of less than 6,000.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 11/17/07: 330,000
Range: 325,000 to 340,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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