New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/15/07 For wk 11/10 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims spiked higher in the Nov. 10 week in a setback for the jobs outlook. Claims rose 20,000 to 339,000, nearly 20,000 above expectations. Importantly, there were no special factors to explain the jump. Despite the jump, the four-week average was unchanged at 330,000 --still the highest level since April. The Labor Department reported no information on the impact of the strike by Hollywood writers. California wildfires of late last month have added only slightly to claims, less than 2,000 in the latest week for a total of less than 6,000.
This report is likely to be overshadowed this morning by the CPI but watch for next week's data as the sample period will coincide with the Labor Department's household survey for monthly payroll data.
Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to 317,000 in the week ending November 3, a positive result for the labor market though the 4-week average remains high at 329,750. Wildfires in California added less than 3,000 to the week's results. Continuing claims for the Oct. 27 week fell 4,000 to 2.579 million. October's payroll data proved strong despite negative signals from claims data. Further improvement in claims data will point to even stronger payroll growth for November.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 11/10/07: 320,000
Range: 292,000 to 325,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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