New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/1/07 For wk 10/27 2007 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 327,000 in the Oct. 27 week with the four-week average also at 327,000. The 327,000 level is higher than September's levels and is about where claims were in August, a time when subprime-related layoffs hit in force. Still, levels are consistent with a strong labor market. The Labor Department noted that California's wildfires added less than 1,000 to the week's unadjusted total. Continuing claims, data for the Oct. 20 week, rose 65,000 to 2.588 million.
This morning's Challenger data and Wednesday' ADP data both point to improvement in payroll growth, but not jobless claims which are pointing to slower growth.
Initial jobless claims dipped 8,000 in the week ending October 20 but remained a little on the high side at 331,000. The previous week, initial claims had jumped 30,000. Labor markets cannot yet be described as weak but they have softened a bit over the last two weeks. A tight labor market has been one of the key areas of concern for the Fed and the recent mild softening might be the right balance that allows the Fed to ease on October 31. The next claims report is after the Fed decision but it will help begin the debate over whether the Fed considers cutting rates again this year or early next year.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/27/07: 330,000
Range: 315,000 to 345,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}