New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/25/07 For wk 10/20 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The level of initial jobless claims remained high in the Oct. 20 week, pointing to slowing growth for October payrolls. Claims came in at 331,000 vs. expectations for 320,000 and vs. 339,000 in the prior week. The four-week average, at 324,750, is back up where it was following the financial market layoffs in August. Continuing claims were little changed, up 7,000 to 2.530 million in data for the Oct. 13 week.
Initial jobless claims took a sudden jump in the week ending October 13, up 28,000 to 337,000 and their highest level since the trouble-filled month of August. The Labor Department told Market News International there were no special factors in the week -- but it did say that seasonal adjustments, tied to an expected downturn in the second week of a quarter that apparently did not happen this time around, may have played a factor. The October 13 week also includes Columbus Day, a government and banking holiday. However, next week's data will be important to clarify just before the Fed's policy meeting whether the labor markets are softening as could be suggested by the October 13 week.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/20/07: 320,000
Range: 310,000 to 330,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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