2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 10/18/07 For wk 10/13 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 337K  
 Consensus 312K  
 Consensus Range 300K  to  328K  
 Previous 308 K  

Highlights
Adding to this week's indications of economic slowdown, initial jobless claims took a sudden jump in the Oct. 13 week, up 28,000 to 337,000 and their highest level since the trouble-filled month of August. The Labor Department told Market News International there were no special factors in the week -- but it did say that seasonal adjustments, tied to an expected downturn in the second week of a quarter that apparently did not happen this time around, may have played a factor. The Oct. 13 week also includes Columbus Day, a government and banking holiday. The four-week average is more important than usual and, at 316,500, is still consistent with tight labor conditions and steady payroll growth. Continuing claims also rose, up 19,000 to 2.534 million.

Next week's data will be telling. Adjustment issues should clear up and the week is the same week as the monthly employment samples. This morning's results tripped immediate gains for Treasuries and further declines for the dollar.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 308,000 in week ending October 6 week, bringing down the four-week average to 310,250, the lowest level since early August. While employers are still cautious about hiring, employers also are very cautious about laying off quality workers with the labor market still tight. Initial claims have fallen in three of the last four weeks.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/13/07: 312,000
Range: 300,000 to 328,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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