New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/11/07 For wk 10/6 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Claims data have been showing strength in the labor market since late August, and they continue to do so. Initial claims fell 12,000 to 308,000 in the Oct. 6 week, bringing down the four-week average to 310,250, the lowest level since early August. There were no special factors in the latest week. Continued claims fell 15,000 to 2.521 million in data for the Sept. 29 week.
Initial jobless claims rebounded 16,000 in the week ending September 29 to 317,000, reversing the 12,000 drop the prior week and 7,000 decline two weeks earlier. The data indicate that labor markets remain tight despite lay-offs in the financial sector. The Fed will be watching the weekly jobless claims numbers to stay on top of labor market trends.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 10/6/07: 315,000
Range: 312,000 to 315,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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