New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/4/07 For wk 9/29 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims rose 16,000 to 317,000 in the Sept. 29 week to reverse the prior week's dip. There were no special factors in the week. The four-week average edged higher to 312,750, a level indicating still tight conditions in the labor market. Claims popped up but only briefly in August at what appears to have been the height of layoffs in the financial and real estate sectors. In a note on the prior week, the total was raised revised 3,000 higher to 301,000, erasing what had been a sub-300,000 reading.
Continuing claims fell 10,000 in the Sept. 22 week to 2.541 million, also down from a pop higher in August. Today's data will firm expectations for moderate to solid data in tomorrow's employment report. There was no significant reaction to the report.
Initial jobless claims continued to portray a tight labor market as claims fell 15,000 in the week ending September 22 to 298,000. The latest four week average declined for the second week, to 311,400 and back down to mid-summer levels.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/29/07: 310,000
Range: 306,000 to 315,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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