New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 9/27/07 For wk 9/22 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims indicate stronger demand for labor, as claims fell 15,000 to a lower-than-expected level of 298,000. Data are for the Sept. 22 week. The latest four week average declined for the second week to at 311,400 and is now at mid-summer levels. Continuing claims for the Sept. 15 week fell 22,000 to 2.551 million, offering their strongest signal since early August. But the four-week average, like it is for initial claims, is still on the high side.
Initial jobless claims continue to indicate that the labor market is somewhat tight as initial claims for the week ending September 15 fell 9,000 to a level of 311,000. Despite the recent turbulence in the financial markets and fears by some of economic slowing, firms clearly are being slow to lay off workers. But, in contrast, there is not sustained evidence that firms are expanding their work force. Continuing claims for the September 8 week did fall 53,000 to 2.544 million, but the four-week average is still on the high side at 2.577 million.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/22/07: 320,000
Range: 310,000 to 320,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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