2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 9/20/07 For wk 9/15 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 311K  
 Consensus 320K  
 Consensus Range 315K  to  340K  
 Previous 319 K  

Highlights
Initial jobless claims indicate stronger demand for labor, as claims fell 9,000 to a lower-than-expected level of 311,000. Data are for the Sept. 15 week which is also the survey week for the monthly employment report. A month-to-month survey week comparison shows sizable strength in September, at 311,000 vs. 325,000 for the Aug. 18 week. The latest four week average, at 320,750, shows less strength. Continuing claims for the Sept. 8 week fell 53,000 to 2.544 million, offering their strongest signal since early August. But the four-week average, like it is for initial claims, is still on the high side at 2.577 million. Treasury prices dipped and the dollar firmed in reaction to the report which will raise expectations for a resumption of strength in payroll growth.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims partially rebounded by 4,000 in the week ending September 8 week to a slightly lower-than-expected level of 319,000. The rise in the latest week followed an unexpected drop of 22,000 the prior week. Initial claims are still relatively low. However, even though continuing claims were down 6,000 in the latest week, the 2.585 million level is somewhat high. Essentially, firms are reluctant to lay off workers while at the same time are cautious about hiring. It now is just as important to follow continuing claims as initial claims.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/15/07: 320,000
Range: 315,000 to 340,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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