2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 9/13/07 For wk 9/8 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 319K  
 Consensus 325K  
 Consensus Range 320K  to  340K  
 Previous 318 K  

Highlights
Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 in the Sept. 8 week to a slightly lower-than-expected level of 319,000. The four-week average, important to look at given the holiday shortened week, is at 324,000, down slightly from the prior week but still much higher than a recent low of 306,000 in late July, a time before a wave of mortgage-related layoffs hit the financial sector. Other than the holiday-shortened period, there were no special factors in the latest week. Continuing claims, down 6,000 at 2.585 million in the Sept. 8 week, are likewise on the high side.

Pressure on claims data have eased in the last couple of weeks but the latest results nevertheless confirm that the labor market has weakened. Financial markets showed no reaction to the data which do not appear to stand in the way of a Federal Reserve rate cut on Tuesday.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims fell back in the week ending September 1, dropping a surprising 19,000 to 318,000 to indicate tightened conditions in the labor market. Even with this past week's monthly employment report providing somewhat more up-to-date and comprehensive information during some of August's financial turbulence, the Fed will still be giving the more current claims data greater scrutiny heading into the September 18, FOMC meeting.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/8/07: 325,000
Range: 320,000 to 340,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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