New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 9/6/07 For wk 9/1 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell back in the Sept. 1 week, down a surprising 19,000 to 318,000 to indicate tightened conditions in the labor market. There were no special factors in the latest week. But the four-week average, reflecting gains in prior weeks, is on the high side, up slightly in the week to a four-month high at 325,750.
Most indications on the labor market have been showing loosening conditions including prior claims reports, yesterday's reports from Challenger and ADP, and a run of layoff announcements from financial firms and mortgage lenders. Though today's data fall outside the mid-August survey period for the monthly employment report, the results may still firm what had been sliding expectations for tomorrow's big data. Treasury prices, despite a mild 1.4 percent rise in unit labor costs that was also released at 8:30 a.m. ET, dipped in reaction to the report.
Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 in the Aug. 25 week to 334,000, the highest level since mid-April. The four-week average is confirming a softening in the labor market, up 6,250 to 324,500. However, given that we have seen earlier announcements of large lay-offs in the financial sector, the latest claims numbers may suggest tight conditions outside of the financial sector.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/1/07: 330,000
Range: 325,000 to 342,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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