New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 8/23/07 For wk 8/18 2007 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Jobless claims edged down 2,000 to a bit higher-than-expected level of 322,000 in the Aug. 18 week. The four-week average rose 4,750 to 317,750. These levels, though on the rise lately, still indicate a tight labor market. There were no special factors in the week.
A survey-week comparison for the monthly employment report points to looser conditions, at 322,000 vs. 303,000 for the July 14 week. But a survey-week comparison of four-week averages is less telling, at 317,750 vs. 312,500.
The labor market has remained strong though layoffs in the mortgage industry have been piling up in recent weeks, layoffs that may spell more trouble for the real estate and construction sectors. Treasuries and the dollar showed no significant reaction to the data.
Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 in the week ending August 11 to 322,000, pushing the four-week average up 4,750 to a level of 312,500 that still indications tight conditions in the labor market. There were no special factors in the latest week. Initial and continuing claims have been edging higher in the last couple of weeks but levels are still quite low, indicating that conditions in the labor market remain strong.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 8/18/07: 320,000
Range: 315,000 to 330,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}