2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 8/9/07 For wk 8/4 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 316K  
 Consensus 310K  
 Consensus Range 306K  to  315K  
 Previous 307 K  

Highlights
Jobless claims edged higher in the latest report but continue to indicate tight conditions in the labor market. Initial claims rose 7,000 in the Aug. 4 week to 316,000, lifting the four-week average 1,750 to 307,750. Continuing claims for the July 28 week rose 39,000 to 2.559 million. There were no special factors in the data. Financial markets showed no immediate reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims rose only 4,000 to 307,000 for the week ending July 28. Labor markets remain tight as the four-week average fell by 3,500 to 305,500.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 8/4/07: 310,000
Range: 306,000 to 315,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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