New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 7/19/07 For wk 7/14 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell 8,000 in the July 14 week to 301,000, pushing down the four-week average by 6,250 to 312,000. The data are pointing more and more to tight conditions in the labor market. Magnifying the importance of the data is the survey week, which is the same for the monthly employment report. Compared to the survey week in June, claims are down a sizable 25,000, though comparison of the four-week averages shows less change, down 3,000. Still, the results will support expectations for another month of solid payroll growth. Treasuries eased in reaction to the data.
Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 308,000 in the July 7 week, pushing down the four-week average by 1,500 to 317,750. Initial claims have been declining in recent weeks, pointing to even tighter conditions in the labor market.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 7/14/07: 310,000 Range: 298,000 to 315,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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