New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 7/5/07 For wk 6/30 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims were little changed in the June 30 week, up 2,000 to a 318,000 level consistent with tight conditions in the labor market. The four-week average rose slightly to 318,500. There were no special factors in the latest week. The results won't affect markets but may cement expectations for what looks to be another firm employment report tomorrow.
Initial jobless claims fell back in the June 23 week, reversing what had been a puzzling jump in the prior week. Claims fell 13,000 to 313,000 with the four-week average up 1,000 to 316,000. Once again, there were no special factors in the week.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/30/07: 315,000
Range: 313,000 to 325,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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