New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/28/07 For wk 6/23 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell back in the June 23 week, reversing what had been a puzzling jump in the prior week. Claims fell 13,000 to 313,000 with the four-week average up 1,000 to 316,000. Once again, there were no special factors in the week.
Continuing claims also showed improvement, down 27,000 to 2.490 million. Continuing claims data are for the June 16 week, which is the survey week for the monthly employment report.
Results for both initial and continuing claims will firm up the outlook for the jobs market. The monthly employment report will be released a week from Friday. Treasuries dipped while the dollar firmed in immediate reaction to the results.
Initial jobless claims jumped surprisingly in the June 16 week, up 10,000 to 324,000 and the highest level in about two months. There were no special factors to explain away the increase.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/23/07: 319,000
Range: 305,000 to 327,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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