New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/21/07 For wk 6/16 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Weekly jobless claims jumped surprisingly in the June 16 week, up 10,000 to 324,000 and the highest level in about two months. There were no special factors to explain away the increase.
The June 16 week is also the survey week for the monthly employment report, and today's data will raise suspicions that June's payroll growth may be on the soft side. For comparison, claims in the May 12 week, which was the survey week for the May employment report, were much lower at 296,000. A look at four-week averages for the survey weeks show 314,500 in June vs. 306,250 in May.
Continuing claims, which are for the June 9 week, also rose, up 39,000 to 2.523 million. It won't be until next week's report that comparisons will be available for the monthly survey period.
Despite the latest jump in initial claims, jobless claims data have been consistent with tight conditions in the labor market. But the results are still a surprise, pulling bonds higher and pushing the dollar lower.
Initial jobless claims were unchanged in the June 9 week at 311,000, right at the four-week average which rose slightly to 311,250. There were no special factors in the latest week. Jobless claims continue to indicate a tight labor market - an issue that is still of concern to the Fed and certainly will be a topic at the June 27-28 FOMC meeting.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/16/07: 311,000
Range: 310,000 to 315,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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