New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/24/07 For wk 5/19 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
After three weeks of steady improvement, jobless claims popped back up in the May 19 week, rising a roughly as expected 15,000 to 311,000. There were no special factors in the week. Despite the rise, the four-week average still showed improvement, down 3,500 to 302,750 and the lowest level in more than a year.
Also posted were continuing claims for the May 12 week, the same week that the Labor Department compiles its monthly employment surveys. Continuing claims rose 58,000 in the week to 2.529 million, a level that nevertheless compares favorably with 2.588 million in the survey week for April. A comparison of survey weeks for initial claims shows an even greater improvement, at 311,000 vs. 341,000.
It was hard to gauge initial reaction to the data which were released with what looks to be a solid durable goods report. But reaction or not, the data, despite the latest week's gains, point to improving conditions in the labor market.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 12 declined by 5,000 to 293,000 - continuing to come in stronger than expected. Initial claims have declined for five consecutive weeks and are at the lowest level since the 287,000 mark for the week ending January 13, 2007. The cyclical low was 279,000 for the week ending January 14, 2006. A tight labor market is one of the key concerns of the Fed for its inflation watch.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/19/07: 310,000
Range: 300,000 to 315,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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