New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/17/07 For wk 5/12 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the May 12 week to a lower-than-expected level of 293,000 that points to new tightness in the labor market. The four-week average is 305,500 -- down 12,000 in the week and the lowest level in more than a year. There were no special factors in the latest week, though this time last year claims were being inflated by a government shutdown in Puerto Rico. A look at the April 14 week, which offers a comparison between survey weeks for the monthly employment report, shows a huge 48,000 improvement (23,750 improvement for the four-week averages). Treasuries dipped and the dollar firmed in immediate reaction to the data.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 5 fell 9,000 to a much better-than-expected level of 297,000. The labor market continues to be tighter than most expected given the softness in some sectors of the economy. And the Fed's key inflation concern currently is the tight labor market.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/12/07: 310,000
Range: 291,000 to 320,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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