New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/3/07 For wk 4/28 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
There were no special factors behind a big 21,000 decline in initial jobless claims to a 305,000 level in the April 28 week that was well under outside expectations. Given the size of the drop, the four-week average will get attention, showing less improvement in the labor market at a 328,750 level, down 4,500 in the week. The level of continuing claims also showed improvement, down 93,000 to 2.495 million. The data were released with a better-than-expected productivity report, clouding their initial impact on the markets. But the data point to strength, a minus for bonds but a plus for the dollar and perhaps expectations for tomorrow's monthly employment report.
Initial jobless claims fell sharply in the week ending April 21, dropping 20,000 to 321,000 in a positive sign for the labor market. While there were no special factors in the latest week, the drop does put initial claims near to where they were before the recent spike.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/28/07: 320,000
Range: 315,000 to 335,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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