New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/26/07 For wk 4/21 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell sharply in the April 21 week, down 20,000 to 321,000 in a positive sign for the labor market. There were no special factors in the latest week. Still, claims in recent weeks have been stubbornly high, evident by the four-week average which rose 2,750 to 332,000.
Continuing claims for the April 14 week, which is the survey week for the monthly employment report, rose 65,000 to 2.594 million and compare unfavorably with 2.517 million in the March 17 week, which was the survey week for the March employment report. Initial claims for the April 14 week were 341,000 compared with 318,000 in the comparable week for March.
Despite the latest improvement in initial claims, claims data have been on the rise. There was no initial reaction to the data.
Initial jobless claims have yet to reverse Easter's upward distortion and may be pointing to a softer labor market. Initial claims fell 4,000 in the week ending April 14 to a 339,000 level. A sharper drop was expected since the prior week saw a jump of 19,000 the prior week and many attributed the increase to the shortened workweek before Easter. The lack of much reversal suggests a weaker labor market instead.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/21/07: 329,000
Range: 325,000 to 330,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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