New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/19/07 For wk 4/14 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims have yet to reverse Easter's upward distortion. Claims fell 4,000 in the April 14 week to a 339,000 level that is far above median expectations for 320,000 and well above outside expectations of 330,000. There were no special factors in the data which in the two prior weeks were skewed higher by adjustment problems related to spring break. The four-week average rose 5,250 to 328,750.
The April 14 week, also the survey week for monthly employment data, point to possible weakness in payroll growth. Initial claims were sharply lower at 318,000 in the comparable week for March though the four-week average was only slightly lower at 324,000. Treasuries firmed and the dollar eased in limited reaction to today's data. But further pressure on claims in future data may very well begin to take the market's attention.
Initial jobless claims jumped 19,000 in the week ending April 7 week to 342,000, lifting the four-week average 7,000 to 323,250. The increase was generally attributed to seasonal adjustment problems related to an early Easter. Hence, little can be made of the spike and it will take at least another week of data to average out the Easter effects.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/14/07: 320,000
Range: 315,000 to 330,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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