New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 4/5/07 For wk 3/31 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims rose 11,000 to 321,000 in the March 31 week, but the four-week average still slipped 1,500 to a 315,750 level that is consistent with solid payroll growth. Continuing claims, down 25,000 to 2.492 million, have also been showing improvement. Markets showed no reaction to the data. The Labor Department will release the March employment report tomorrow.
Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 308,000 for the week ending March 24. The drop pushed down the four-week average by 7,250 to 316,750. The labor market continues to remain tighter than many expected and is helping to support the consumer sector. The negative is that the Fed remains concerned about wage inflation.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 4/1/07: 317,000
Range: 310,000 to 325,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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