New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/29/07 For wk 3/24 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
In data pointing to labor market strength, initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to a better-than-expected level of 308,000 in the March 24 week. The drop pushed down the four-week average by 7,250 to 316,750.
Continuing claims for the March 17 week, the same week the Labor Department conducts its surveys for the monthly employment report, rose 32,000 to a level of 2.527 million which, despite the weekly rise, compares favorably with the 2.624 million level in the comparable February week. The four-week average for continuing claims fell 24,250 to 2.531 million.
After jumping in February, jobless claims have settled back to levels consistent with moderate and solid payroll growth. Treasuries slipped and the dollar firmed in reaction to this morning's 8:30 a.m. ET data which also included an upward revision to GDP.
Initial jobless claims recently have shown a firming in the labor market. First-time jobless claims fell 4,000 in the week ending March 17 to 316,000. The four-week average fell 3,750 to 326,000, a slightly elevated level but still under February levels near 340,000. Maintaining current claims levels or even posting only modest increases in the next week will strengthen the argument that employment may pick up in March from sluggish payrolls gains in January and February. The tight labor market is one of the Fed's continuing concerns and it is a tough balancing act between easing in the labor market versus losing too much momentum in the consumer sector from slower job and income growth.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/24/07: 320,000
Range: 310,000 to 324,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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