New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/15/07 For wk 3/10 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Initial jobless claims fell 12,000 in the March 10 week to 318,000, a lower-than-expected level pointing to steady conditions in the labor market. The four-week average fell a sharp 10,250 in the week but to a 329,250 level that is still on the high side. Initial claims have been trending at about 315,000 for at least a year, though February saw a spike, perhaps weather related, toward 340,000.
Continuing claims also turned higher in February. Data for the March 3 week, the latest available, show a 48,000 rise to 2.576 million, lifting the four-week average a bit to a multi-year high of 2.559 million.
The labor market showed solid strength in February despite the turn higher in jobless claims. But continued improvement in claims would boost expectations for strong payroll growth again in March.
Initial jobless claims dropped 10,000 in the week ending March 3 to 328,000 but the four-week average still shows emerging weakness in the labor market, up 3,750 in the week to 339,000 and the highest level since October 2005.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/10/07: 325,000
Range: 320,000 to 340,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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