New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/8/07 For wk 3/3 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell back 10,000 in the March 3 week to 328,000 but the four-week average still shows emerging weakness in the labor market, up 3,750 in the week to 339,000 and the highest level since October 2005. Despite heavy weather in parts of the country, the Labor Department said there were no special factors in the week.
Continuing claims have been confirming the trouble though claims in the Feb. 24 week, which is the latest available period, fell back 98,000 to 2.526 million. Still the four-week average edged up to 2.553 million.
Treasuries edged lower and the dollar edged higher in immediate reaction to the results which were not as soft as expected. But trends in this data are soft and will not boost expectations for tomorrow's monthly employment report.
Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 in the week ended February 24 week to 338,000. The four-week average also rose, up 7,500 to 335,250 and its highest level since October 2005. Recent jobless claims have been volatile but have been trending up somewhat, suggesting a moderation in employment growth.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 2/27/07: 335,000
Range: 320,000 to 340,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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