New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/1/07 For wk 2/24 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Weekly jobless claims continue to indicate slowing conditions in the jobs market, rising 7,000 in the Feb. 24 week to 338,000. The four-week average offers the biggest headline in the report, up 7,500 to 335,250 and its highest level since October 2005. There were no special factors in the latest week.
Continuing claims are confirming the trouble, jumping 134,000 to 2.640 million. Continuing claims data lag a week, in this case the data are for the Feb. 17 week which is also the survey week of the monthly employment report. The four-week average is up 24,000 to 2.547 million.
Softer jobs growth may help lower inflation pressures, but a healthy jobs market is critical for the nation and part of the Federal Reserve's mandate. Today's data are very likely to lower estimates for February's employment report.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 17 reversed a big chunk of their prior spike with a 27,000 fall, following a 46,000 surge for the February 10 week. Weather played a big role in both weeks. So the markets will be looking to see how a week with little weather impact (outside of normal seasonal effects) will turn out. Thus far, initial claims in recent weeks have still been consistent on average - emphasizing on average - with modest employment gains.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 2/20/07: 325,000
Range: 320,000 to 347,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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