New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/15/07 For wk 2/10 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The job market may be slowing, indicated by a dramatic 44,000 jump in weekly jobless claims to 357,000 that is only partially due to severe weather. The jump, for the Feb. 10 week, pushed the four-week average up 17,500 to 326,250 and the highest level in more than two months.
A Labor Department official, speaking to Market News International, said severe weather in the Midwest and Northeast accounted for only a "small portion," less than one quarter, of the spike. Continuing claims also showed deterioration, up 71,000 to 2.560 million.
Market reaction to the data appeared to be muted, in part because the numbers were released alongside a mixed batch of other data: a stable reading for import prices and a big jump in the Empire State index. Next week's initial claims data, which will match the survey week for the monthly employment report, will be especially important, and a similar reading, affected by weather or not, is likely to have a much more significant impact on the financial markets.
Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 in the week ending February 3 to 311,000. There were no special factors and the level is consistent with moderate job growth.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 2/10/07: 310,000
Range: 308,000 to 325,000
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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