New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/1/07 For wk 1/27 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Weekly initial jobless claims fell 20,000 in the Jan. 27 week to 307,000 pushing the four-week average down 4,500 to 304,750 and its best level in a year. There were no special factors for the data. Offsetting the improvement was a gain in continuing claims, up 71,000 in the Jan. 20 week to 2.553 million. The dip in initial claims is a positive for the labor outlook and may help firm expectations for solid growth in tomorrow's employment report.
Initial jobless claims jumped 36,000 in the week ending January 20 to a much higher-than-expected and disappointing level of 325,000. But the week included Martin Luther King Day Jr. Day which may have skewed the results. So, the markets are expecting a large drop in initial claims but if that happens much of it will merely be a technical improvement - that is, unless they fall more than 36,000.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/27/07: 315,000
Range: 310,000 to 325,000
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend. |
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