2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Jobless Claims
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility. Why Investors Care

Released on 1/11/07 For wk 1/6 2007
New Claims - Level
 Actual 299K  
 Consensus 320K  
 Consensus Range 300K  to  340K  
 Previous 329 K  

Highlights
If it wasn't for the shortened Jan. 6 holiday week, news of a big 26,000 plunge in initial jobless claims to a 5-1/2 month low of 299,000 would have improved the outlook for the labor market. As it is, the four-week average probably tells the more accurate story showing a decline of only 1,750 to a still moderate level of 314,750. The Labor Department noted that the holiday week did affect claims though President Ford's funeral, which was a federal holiday, probably had no effect on the results.

Treasuries slipped and the dollar firmed in initial reaction to the data though the results are likely to have little lasting impact through the morning. A similar level in next week's data for the Jan. 13 week, however, would likely have a much greater effect on the jobs outlook and on the markets.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 in the Dec. 30 week to 329,000. There were no special factors in the latest week but seasonal adjustment is difficult on a weekly basis for the holiday season.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/6/07: 320,000
Range: 300,000 to 340,000
Trends
[Chart] Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

 
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