A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years - particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/20/08 For Sep 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in September, a surprising gain but following a downwardly revised and very steep decline of 0.9 percent in August (-0.5 percent initially reported) and a 0.7 percent decline in July. The largest factor by far adding to September's gain was money supply, a reflection of the month's financial upheaval and without which the LEI would have been negative. No less interesting is the coincident index which fell 0.5 percent in September and together with a flat reading in August and a 0.2 percent decline in July point strongly to recession for the third quarter. The report said the results reflect economic contraction but not freefall.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators is now pointing to possible recession in the fourth quarter, although it is still a tossup whether the coincident index will be revised to push any official start of recession back into the third quarter. The index of leading economic indicators fell a steep 0.5 percent in August on top of July's even steeper 0.7 decline. The index of coincident economic indicators, designed to peg current activity, slipped only very slightly by 0.1 percent and follows a no-change reading in July. But downward revisions to the coincident index could lead to recession having begun in the third quarter.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for September 08: -0.2 percent
Range: -1.0 to +0.5 percent
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