A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years - particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points. Why Investors Care
| Released on 8/21/08 For Jul 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators plunged 0.7 percent in July, skewed lower by a drop in building permits tied to one-time effects from New York City. But other components were lower as well including stock prices and jobless claims. The report's coincident indicator, closely watched for signals on recession, rose 0.1 percent in July following no change in June. This indicator suggests the economy continues to skirt recession.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators has been hovering near zero in recent months, pointing toward a flat economy. The leading index slipped 0.1 percent in June, following a 0.2 percent decline in May and a 0.1 percent rise in April. Money supply, which is an iffy indicator clouded by measurement difficulties, was the biggest negative for June followed by two substantial categories - stock prices and unemployment claims. The big plus for the report was a jump in building permits that however was tied to a one-time change in the New York City building code. A third consecutive decline in July might be cause for increased recession worries although many economists have upwardly revised their estimates for second quarter GDP to 3 percent. Softness in the economy now appears to be more the concern for the third and fourth quarters.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for July 08: -0.2 percent
Range: -0.9 to +0.1 percent
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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