A composite index of ten economic indicators that should lead overall economic activity. This indicator was initially compiled by the Commerce Department but is now compiled and produced by The Conference Board. It has been revised many times in the past 30 years - particularly when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/19/08 For Apr 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators inched 0.1 percent forward in April, the second straight 0.1 percent gain and suggesting that the economy will not dip into recession. The report's coincident indicator, closely watched by the National Bureau of Economic Research, showed no growth for a second month. With the economy on the edge of recession, flat results are definitely positive. The text of the report said the economy is weak but not in recession. Stocks and housing permits were two big pluses for April's LEI.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators may be pointing more to a flat economy than an outright recession. The index rebounded 0.1 percent in March after declining 0.3 percent in February and dropping 0.4 percent in January. A zigzag pattern may be emerging, making it difficult to forecast a full-fledged recession. The index of coincident indicators also rebounded, gaining 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent fall in February. But the latest declines in payroll employment and industrial production point toward an April decline in the coincident indicators, raising the probability of contraction in the second quarter.
Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for April 08: -0.1 percent
Range: -0.2 to +0.1 percent
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