Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/14/08 For Oct 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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Highlights
Prices are swinging around in line with the swing lower in global economic growth. Import prices fell 4.7 percent in October with export prices down 1.9 percent, both records and records by a long shot. Year-on-year rates have slowed sharply, at +6.7 percent for import prices, down from a record peak of +21.5 percent in July, and at +4.2 percent for export prices vs. a record 10.3 percent peak also set in July. This series, which goes back 25 years, is pointing to a significant easing in inflation, or disinflation as policy makers say.
Inflation hit its peak in July, also the peak for oil prices that neared $150. Economic growth, boosted by mid-year tax rebates, was still solid in July. But since, both import and export prices have fallen steeply for three straight months. The focus of economic risk, with the onset of the banking crisis, has shifted toward growth, a concern underscored dramatically by retail sales data which were released alongside this report.
Import prices have fallen back steeply the last two months, reflecting lower energy prices and also slowing demand. Import prices fell 3.0 percent in September after declining 2.6 percent the month before. But even excluding petroleum, import prices posted a rare month-to-month dip, down 0.9 percent for a record decline and the first decline in a year-and-a-half. This largely reflects a world-wide easing in demand for commodities. Looking ahead, more recent declines in oil prices and in other commodities should result in a sizeable decrease in import prices for October.
Import prices Consensus Forecast for October 08: -4.2 percent
Range: -8.0 to -1.0 percent
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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