2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Import and Export Prices
Definition
Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care

Released on 10/10/08 For Sep 2008
Import Prices - M/M change
 Actual -3.0%  
 Consensus -2.5%  
 Consensus Range -4.4%  to  -0.4%  
 Previous -3.7 %  
   
Export Prices - M/M change
  Actual -1.0%  
 Consensus N/A  
 Previous -1.7 %  

Highlights
Import prices have come falling back steeply the last two months, reflecting lower energy prices but also slowing demand. Import prices fell 3.0 percent in September, the second severe drop in a row. The year-on-year change, though severe in the other direction at +14.5 percent, is still the lowest rate since February. Month-to-month, import prices were down across the board led by a 9.0 percent drop in petroleum products. Excluding petroleum, import prices posted a rare month-to-month dip, down 0.9 percent for a record decline and the first decline in a year-and-a-half. This reading is closely watched and indicates that price pressures are reversing.

Export prices fell 1.0 percent in September following a 1.7 percent drop in August for a rare back-to-back dip. Year-on-year, export prices are up 6.8 percent, also the lowest rate since February.

Cost pass through appears to have peaked, based on price readings for both exports and imports of both capital and consumers goods where prices, which had been on a steep climb earlier in the year, are beginning to retreat. Markets are not likely to pay too much attention to today's report which however does point away from the risks of inflation and offers support for central bank rate cuts to help the markets.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices fell 3.7 percent in August, the largest single drop in 20 years. Excluding a giant 12.8 percent plunge in petroleum, import prices fell 0.3 percent to end a long streak of 10 monthly gains.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for September 08: -2.5 percent
Range: -4.4 to -0.4 percent
Trends
[Chart] Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

2008 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/11 2/15 3/13 4/11 5/13 6/12 7/11 8/13 9/11 10/10 11/14 12/11
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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