Econoday Report: Import and Export Prices 11, 2007

2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

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Import and Export Prices

Definition
Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care

Released on 10/11/07 For Sep 2007

Import Prices - M/M change
Actual	1.0%
Consensus	0.8%
Consensus Range	0.4% to 1.0%
Previous	-0.3 %

Export Prices - M/M change
Actual	0.3%
Consensus	N/A
Previous	0.1 %

Highlights
Import prices are less dangerous than the main headline which jumped 1.0 percent in September reflecting a 5.4 percent surge in petroleum prices. The year-on-year rate is very high at 5.2 percent. But excluding petroleum, import prices dipped 0.2 percent in September for a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percent. There's talk that strong foreign currencies will add to domestic inflation, but today's results, outside of energy, shouldn't add to immediate worries. Prices rose a pretty tame 0.2 percent with China, which is a focus of concern.

Export prices rose 0.3 percent for a 4.5 percent year-on-year rate. Non-agricultural export prices were unchanged at a year-on-year rate of 2.9 percent.

Today's results are mixed pointing to energy-related pressure in the coming PPI and CPI headlines but tame readings for the core rates.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices slipped 0.3 percent in August helped by a 1.3 percent decline in petroleum. Excluding petroleum, import prices slipped 0.1 percent in August, following a rise of 0.1 percent the month before. Nonetheless, import prices are posing one of the key concerns on the inflation front with year-on-year overall import prices up 1.9 percent. Crude oil prices are near record highs, strong world-wide economic growth is keeping commodity prices strong, and the declining dollar is boosting the dollar cost of imports for U.S. consumers. The last time the core PCE price index was in the Fed's comfort zone, non-oil import prices actually were declining - in sharp contrast to marginally positive gains currently.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for September 07: +0.8 percent
Range: +0.4 to +1.0 percent

Trends

Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/12 2/15 3/14 4/12 5/10 6/13 7/13 8/10 9/14 10/11 11/9 12/12

Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov