Econoday Report: Import and Export Prices 14, 2007

2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

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Import and Export Prices

Definition
Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care

Released on 9/14/07 For Aug 2007

Import Prices - M/M change
Actual	-0.3%
Consensus	0.4%
Consensus Range	-0.2% to 0.5%
Previous	1.5 %

Export Prices - M/M change
Actual	0.1%
Consensus	N/A
Previous	0.2 %

Highlights
Import prices slipped 0.3 percent in August helped by a 1.3 percent decline in petroleum. Outside of petroleum and petroleum-related products, results were mixed but still mostly moderate. Foods, feeds & beverages, which are definitely on the increase, rose a steep 0.7 percent following a 1.3 percent jump in July. Prices of capital goods and consumer goods both rose 0.2 percent for a second straight month. Year-on-year, overall import prices are up a tame 1.9 percent and a nearly as tame 2.3 percent excluding petroleum. By country, import prices with China rose 0.3 percent in the month and 0.1 percent with the EU. Import prices with Canada slipped 0.5 percent.

Export prices rose 0.2 percent in the month for a 3.6 percent year-on-year pace. Agricultural prices jumped 1.0 percent in August, extending a string of steep increases. Year-on-year, agricultural prices are up 17.6 percent. Outside of agriculture, price pressures aren't too severe with a 0.1 percent gain in the month for a 2.4 percent year-on-year pace.

Though there are areas showing pressures and current gains in oil prices point to future pressure, today's data point to unalarming results for August's CPI and PPI data. The data aren't likely to heighten inflation concerns at the Federal Reserve which is widely expected to cut rates on Tuesday.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices rose a greater-than-expected 1.5 percent in July but were up only 0.2 percent excluding petroleum products. Year-on-year, both rates are up 2.8 percent. A weak dollar and strong overseas demand for goods are keeping upward pressure on U.S. import prices.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for August 07: +0.4 percent
Range: -0.2 to +0.5 percent

Trends

Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.

Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/12 2/15 3/14 4/12 5/10 6/13 7/13 8/10 9/14 10/11 11/9 12/12

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