2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Import and Export Prices
Definition
Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care

Released on 8/10/07 For Jul 2007
Import Prices - M/M change
 Actual 1.5%  
 Consensus 1.0%  
 Consensus Range -0.2%  to  1.8%  
 Previous 1.0 %  
   
Export Prices - M/M change
  Actual 0.2%  
 Consensus N/A  
 Previous 0.3 %  

Highlights
Import prices rose a greater-than-expected 1.5 percent in July but were up only 0.2 percent excluding petroleum products. Year-on-year, both rates are up 2.8 percent. Export prices rose 0.2 percent in the month and were unchanged excluding agricultural products.

The 2.8 percent year-on-year rise for imports excluding petroleum is definitely on the high side for Federal Reserve policy makers. But vigilance against inflation, despite the Fed's commitment to its anti-inflation bias announced on Tuesday, is definitely evaporating in importance. Concern over liquidity in the international banking system is raising the risk of dislocations in the financial markets and a chocking off of lending to qualified borrowers. Treasuries did dip in reaction to the headline jump, but the Treasury market is swollen with gains following the 24-hour surge of flight to safety.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices increased 1.0 percent in June - a strong pace but lower than May's increase of 1.1 percent. Excluding petroleum, import prices edged up only 0.2 percent in June.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for July 07: +1.0 percent
Range: -0.2 to +1.8 percent
Trends
[Chart] Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/12 2/15 3/14 4/12 5/10 6/13 7/13 8/10 9/14 10/11 11/9 12/12
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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