2007 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Import and Export Prices
Definition
Indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products. Why Investors Care

Released on 2/15/07 For Jan 2007
Import Prices - M/M change
 Actual -1.2%  
 Consensus -1.0%  
 Consensus Range -1.9%  to  -0.4%  
 Previous 1.1 %  
   
Export Prices - M/M change
  Actual 0.3%  
 Consensus N/A  
 Previous 0.7 %  

Highlights
In data that will help to ease concern over inflation pressures, import prices fell 1.2 percent in January and -- in a big plus -- were unchanged excluding petroleum. Imported petroleum prices fell 7.3 percent in the month, but again it's the non-petroleum reading, not subject to month-to-month swings in oil prices, that will catch the eyes of the market and of Federal Reserve officials including Chairman Ben Bernanke who may very well touch on the data in today's testimony. Year-on-year prices show virtually no pressure, at a gain of only 0.1 percent overall and a modest 1.6 percent excluding petroleum.

Export prices, the other half of today's report, rose 0.3 percent and are up a less-than-moderate 4.1 percent year-on-year. High export prices are less of a concern as they give a boost to domestic producers, though they do of course feed back on overall price levels.

Today's import reading will boost expectations for favorable numbers in tomorrow's PPI report, which is expected to show a 0.5 percent overall decline. Markets showed little reaction to today's price data which were released along with a strong Empire State report but also a very weak jobless claims report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices jumped 1.1 percent in December due to a spike in import petroleum prices. Since December, prices have been on a weekly roller coaster but on average they appear to be down from December. Excluding petroleum and natural gas, import prices have been mostly subdued. Sustained softness in import prices is needed to help bring down overall inflation.

Import prices Consensus Forecast for January 07: -1.0 percent
Range: -1.9 to -0.4 percent
Trends
[Chart] Yearly changes in import and export prices reveal long term trends in inflation for tradable goods.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2007 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/12 2/15 3/14 4/12 5/10 6/13 7/13 8/10 9/14 10/11 11/9 12/12
Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov


 
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