Housing starts measure initial construction of residential units (single-family and multi-family) each month. A rising (falling) trend points to gains (declines) in demand for furniture, home furnishings and appliances. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/17/08 For Sep 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||
Highlights
Housing starts in September continued to plummet, adding to recession worries. Starts declined 6.3 percent, following an 8.1 percent fall in August. The September pace of 0.817 million units annualized was down 31.1 percent year-on-year and was below of the consensus projection for 0.880 million units. The drop in starts was led by single-family starts, which fell 12.0 percent, after a 4.0 percent decline in August. Multifamily starts rebounded 7.5, after dropping 16.7 percent in August.
By region, the fall in starts was led by a monthly 20.9 percent decline in the Northeast. Starts in the West also dropped - by 16.8 percent in September. The Midwest and South posted gains of 5.6 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
Permits also declined in September, falling 8.3 percent, following a 8.5 percent decrease in August. The September 0.786 million unit pace for permits was down 38.4 percent year-on-year.
Today's report indicates that homebuilders have cut back sharply on construction. This reduction in needed to work on unsold inventories of unsold homes on the market. The permits and starts numbers indicate that housing has a long way to go to recover. This is another sign glaringly pointing to recession.
Housing starts in August continued its downward spiral as tight credit and bloated supplies of unsold homes continued to depress new construction. Starts fell 6.2 percent, following a 12.4 percent drop in July. The August pace of 0.895 million units annualized was down 33.1 percent year-on-year and fell short of the market forecast for 0.950 million units. While we recently got some positive news with a 7.4 percent jump in pending home sales, that may be too far upstream to help construction just yet. Unsold inventories still weigh on builders. The best we can hope for in the near term is a bottom in starts - a rebound is still some time off.
Housing starts Consensus Forecast for September 08: 0.880 million-unit rate
Range: 0.840 million to 0.940 million-unit rate
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Monthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. According to the Commerce Department, it takes six months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a six month moving average. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}