Housing starts measure initial construction of residential units (single-family and multi-family) each month. A rising (falling) trend points to gains (declines) in demand for furniture, home furnishings and appliances. Why Investors Care
| Released on 8/16/07 For Jul 2007 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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Highlights
Housing starts in July resumed a downtrend. Housing starts in July fell 6.1 percent, following a revised 2.1 percent rise in June. July's 1.381 million annual rate came in below the market projection for 1.41 million units and compared to the initial June estimate of 1.467 million units. In July, single-family starts fell 7.3 percent while multifamily starts declined 1.6 percent.
On a year-on-year basis, overall starts are down 20.9 percent in July, compared to down 19.2 percent in June.
Regionally, starts in July were weakest in the South with an 11.0 percent drop. Starts also fell in the West and Northeast with declines of 3.7 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. Starts rose 2.6 percent in the Midwest.
Housing permits, continued to fall in July with a 2.8 percent decrease, following a 7.0 percent drop in June. Housing permits were at a 1.373 million unit annual pace, compared to 1.413 in June. Single-family permits edged down 1.6 percent while multifamily permits dropped 6.1 percent.
On a year-on-year basis, overall permits were down 22.6 percent in July, up from down 24.8 percent in June.
The July starts report shows the housing sector to still be under pressure from subprime problems and unsold inventories. Recovery in this sector is still quite some time away. Bonds should like the numbers but equities may swoon again.
Housing starts in June rebounded 2.3 percent, following a revised 3.4 percent decline in May. June's pace stood at a 1.467 million annual rate, which was down 19.4 percent on a year-on-year basis. In June, single-family starts edged down 0.2 percent while multifamily starts jumped 12.5 percent. Housing permits, however, fell 7.5 percent in June, following a 4.3 percent rise the month before. Housing permits were at a 1.406 million unit annual pace, down 25.2 percent on a year-on-year basis. Given the continued overhang in housing supply - new and existing homes - starts are likely to remain weak in July.
Housing starts Consensus Forecast for July 07: 1.410 million-unit rate
Range: 1.375 million to 1.460 million-unit rate
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Monthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. According to the Commerce Department, it takes six months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a six month moving average. |
| 2007 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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