On December 14, 2004, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that they would release the minutes of each meeting with a three week lag. This is a vast improvement from the previous release of the minutes which ranged from a six to eight week lag. While the FOMC releases a statement after each meeting which describes the policy action (or inaction), the minutes generate a lot of attention in the financial markets because they reveal more details on the discussion of the most recent FOMC meeting. Why Investors Care
Highlights
The FOMC minutes of the April 29-30 meeting gave stronger evidence that the Fed is pausing in cutting interest rates. However, the Fed lowered its forecast for economic growth but also raised its forecast for inflation. In fact, the Fed raised its 2008 headline inflation outlook by a full percentage point. Comments at the meeting by several members indicate that it will take substantially weaker conditions to result in another rate cut. The financial markets were seen as improved but still fragile. At the meeting, the FOMC consensus was that GDP would contract in the first half but rebound in the second half of 2008. The bottom line is that uncertainty about economic growth and inflation is higher than normal but that the Fed sees the risks as essentially balanced and another rate cut is not likely.
In the Fed's quarterly forecast released with the FOMC minutes, the Fed lowered its 2008 forecast for real GDP on Q4/Q4 basis from a range of 1.3 to 2.0 percent at the January meeting to a range of 0.3 to 1.2 percent. Headline PCE inflation for 2008 was revised from a range of 2.1 to 2.4 percent to a range of 3.1 to 3.4 percent. Core PCE inflation was boosted from a range of 2.0 to 2.2 percent to a range of 2.2 to 2.4 percent. The 2008 Q4 forecast for the unemployment rate went from a range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent to a range of 5.5 to 5.7 percent.
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}