2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis
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Employment Cost Index
Definition
A measure of total employee compensation costs, including wages and salaries as well as benefits. The employment cost index (ECI) is the broadest measure of labor costs.  Why Investors Care

Released on 4/30/08 For Q1 2008
ECI - Q/Q change
 Actual 0.7%  
 Consensus 0.8%  
 Consensus Range 0.7%  to  1.0%  
   
ECI - Y/Y change
  Actual 3.3%  
 Consensus N/A  

Highlights
The employment cost index rose 0.7 percent in the first quarter showing a 3.3 percent year-on-year rate in results that indicate non-accelerating pressure for labor costs. The index increased 0.8 percent in the prior two quarters. Benefit payments, which make up about a third of the index and which have been easing in recent quarters, slowed to a 0.6 percent quarter-to-quarter rise vs. a 0.8 percent increase in the fourth quarter. Year-on-year, however, benefits were up 3.5 percent vs. the fourth quarter's 3.1 percent. Weakening conditions in the labor market, despite rising fuel and food costs, point to slowing gains for wages and benefits. Friday's employment report will offer April data on hourly earnings.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The employment cost index for civilian workers held steady in the fourth quarter with a softening economy being counterbalanced by selective shortages of skilled workers. The employment cost index rose a non-annualized 0.8 percent in the quarter for a year-on-year rate of 3.3 percent, with both readings unchanged from the third quarter. Compensation in the report is split between wages & salaries, at 0.8 percent for a third straight quarter, and benefits, which edged 1 tenth higher to 0.9 percent. But the recent trend is that employers are cutting costs by reducing benefits as year-on-year benefits growth slipped 1 tenth to 3.1 percent with wages & salaries at 3.4 percent for a 1 tenth gain. The modest softening in the labor market has yet to improve compensation inflation.

Employment cost index Consensus Forecast for Q1 08: +0.8 percent simple quarterly rate
Range: +0.7 to +1.0 percent simple quarterly rate
Trends
[Chart] The employment cost index measured total compensation costs which include wages and salaries and also benefits. Benefits include vacations, but the primary mover is health insurance premiums.
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

2008 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/31 4/30 7/31 10/30
Released For: Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3


 
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