The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/15/08 For Feb 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The empire state index fell to -11.7 in February, well down from 9.0 in January and signaling month-to-month contraction in the New York manufacturing area. Unfortunately weakness was centered in new orders, at -11.9 and a reading that points to contracting production in the months ahead. Shipments in fact are already contracting, at -4.9 in a steep fall from 15.8 in January. Inventories are unchanged which is welcome news given a run of other data showing backup tied to economic slowing. Demand may be slowing but price pressures aren't easing, with prices paid up more than 7 points to 47.4 and prices received little changed at 17.9. The Empire State report isn't a heavy weight report but it definitely raises concern for weak data in next week's Philadelphia Fed report and -- importantly -- sub 50 readings in the ISM manufacturing report.
The Empire State manufacturing index slowed to a reading of 9.0 in January from 9.8 the prior month. While January remained in positive territory, the new orders index suggests that the overall index may be weakening in coming months. The new orders index fell to 0.0 from 13.2 in December. Meanwhile, price news has not been favorable. Input costs rose to 40.2 in January from 35.0 in December while output prices increased to 18.3 versus 12.5 the prior month.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for February 08: 5.75
Range: 2.87 to 11.00
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
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