The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/15/07 For Nov 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Growth in New York state's manufacturing region slowed slightly in November. The Empire State's headline index dipped only fractionally to 27.4 reflecting a steady and healthy rate of new orders and shipments that are near the headline level. But unfilled orders contracted slightly in the month as did inventories. Also delivery times improved, reflecting easing pressures on the supply chain consistent with slowing activity. Employment growth slowed noticeably, down to 10.6 from 20.5 and the workweek slowed even more noticeably, to 4.8 from 23.2. Price data remain elevated but show no new pressures with prices paid up nearly 7 points to 42.9 but prices received down about 4 points to 11.9.
The nation's manufacturing sector remains healthy but rates of growth, hit by housing related trouble, do appear to be slowing. The Philadelphia Fed will release its closely watched report at noon ET today while the Federal Reserve will post the industrial production report tomorrow.
The Empire State manufacturing index rose to 28.8 in October from 14.7 the month before. New orders came in at 25.0, up sharply from 13.6 in September. Unfilled orders were only marginally in positive territory. Price pressures remained elevated with prices paid coming in at 36.1 versus 35.1 in September and 34.4 in August. Prices received moved higher to 15.1 from 11.7 the prior month.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for November 07: 20.0
Range: 15.0 to 22.0
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
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