The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/15/07 For Oct 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The New York Fed's Empire State report shows firming conditions in the region's manufacturing sector. The October general business conditions index rose to 28.8 from 14.7 with new orders at 25.0 vs. 13.6, shipments 28.6 vs. 5.1, and unfilled orders at 3.5 vs. -2.1. Delivery times and inventories remain stable and little change.
Price pressures are elevated but not deepening significantly. Prices paid came in 36.1 vs. 35.1 in September and 34.4 in August. Prices received did move higher, to 15.1 vs. 11.7. Labor indicators showed improvement with the number of employees up more than 2 points to 20.5 and the average workweek, reflecting the strong shipments, much higher at 23.3 vs. 9.6.
Treasuries edged lower in reaction to the data which show strength along with some inflation pressure. But this report is very volatile month-to-month and its impact will be limited, though it will raise expectations for a firm reading in Thursday's more closely watched manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed.
The Empire State manufacturing index fell back from 25.1 in August to 14.7 in September as a number of manufacturing surveys are indicating a moderation in manufacturing. Also indicating a slowing were new orders, shipments, and the employee workweek although the index for the number of employees did rise somewhat. Both price indexes showed a firming in price pressure with the prices paid index rising from 34.4 in August to 35.1 in September while prices received increased from 3.2 to 11.7.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for October 07: 12.5
Range: 9.5 to 18.5
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
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