The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 8/15/07 For Aug 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Empire State report shows continued strong growth in the region's manufacturing sector, with the business conditions index at 25.1 in August, the third straight reading between 25 and 27 (zero is the breakeven point). New orders were very strong at 22.2 as were shipments at 28.8. Delivery times slowed, to 6.5 vs. -6.2 reflecting mild and understandable strain on the supply chain. Inventories were drawn down for a second straight month, at -2.2 vs. -19.8, a contrast to the ISM manufacturing report which showed rising inventories that raised the question of overhang. But the ISM report, unlike this report, also showed slowing overall growth.
Other readings in the Empire report show price pressures stable, with prices paid at 34.4 vs. 34.6. High input costs are not pressuring output prices with prices received at a very mild 3.2 vs. July's 8.6. Labor readings showed steady hiring at 11.6 and a rise in the workweek to 16.1 vs. 6.2.
The Empire State report has proven stronger than other regional manufacturing reports and stronger than the national ISM report. Still today's results are likely to firm expectations for a solid reading in tomorrow's more closely watched report from the Philadelphia Fed.
The Empire State manufacturing index was relatively healthy in July at 26.5 as it was in June at 25.8. July's increase in new orders with that index up more than 9 points to 26.5 suggests continued healthy production in August.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for August 07: 18.0
Range: 14.0 to 19.0
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
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