The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed's seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Why Investors Care
| Released on 6/15/07 For Jun 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Empire State manufacturing index popped up sharply in June, to 25.8 vs. 8.0 in May and 3.8 in April. June's new orders are strong at 17.2, up more than 9 points, with shipments very strong at 29.8 vs. 14.1. Manufacturers in the region appear to working down backlog, which showed month-to-month contraction at -2.1. Delivery times picked up speed at -1.1, likely another indication that manufacturers, seeing strong orders ahead, are moving shipments out the door.
High energy costs and likely high costs for certain metals pushed prices paid up to 42.6 vs. 34.4. But as usual these costs are largely being absorbed through productivity gains as prices received showed less pressure at 9.6 vs. 15.6. Employment readings were softer than May but still showed month-to-month gains, at 3.4 for the number of employees and at 3.2 for the workweek. But the promise of strong orders and rising shipments point to stronger employment readings ahead.
The report won't move the markets, which will concentrate this morning on the CPI, but it does fall in line with last month's strong ISM manufacturing report and is likely to raise expectations for strong results in next week's Philadelphia Fed report.
The Empire State manufacturing index showed modest strength in its May reading, rising to 8.0 from 3.8 in April. New orders also showed modest strength, at 8.0 vs. April's 3.9. Regional manufacturing surveys have recently been showing an improvement in manufacturing. Another healthy month would further confirm that manufacturing is coming out of its first quarter doldrums.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey Consensus Forecast for June 07: +12.5
Range: +9.0 to +15.0
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey. |
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